Highlights, Economic and Financial Review-AMF

• In 2023, the fight against inflation turned a corner as the effects of key policy rate hikes were felt. Inflation gradually came down from the highs reached in 2022. At the same time, the global economy, while it slowed, proved more resilient than anticipated. Central banks are now trying to orchestrate a soft landing for the economy.

• The U.S. economy was particularly resilient throughout 2023, due in part to strong household consumption and a solid labour market. An average of more than 200,000 jobs were created every month in 2023, and the jobless rate has been under 4% for almost two years.

• While the United States exceeded expectations, the Canadian economy struggled, owing in part to anemic productivity growth and high household debt, which is making the economy more sensitive to rising interest rates.

• In Québec, the economy stalled in 2023. All components of private domestic demand slowed or lost ground. Business and residential investment fell. Only consumer spending remained relatively firm.

• After significant declines in 2022, the main stock markets resumed their upward trajectory in 2023, buoyed by the expected end of monetary tightening and the resilience of the global economy.

• Bond yields rose for most of 2023, then declined at the end of the year. This downturn in bond yields was due to a moderation of inflationary pressures and a shift in investors’ monetary policy expectations.

• Several issues will need to be monitored in 2024, including inflation and monetary policy, geopolitical tensions, household and corporate debt, the residential and commercial real estate markets, financial market resilience, and disruptive technologies.